Dutch security report: Tsunami could be more devastating than hurricane for St. Maarten

GREAT BAY--A new Dutch national security risk assessment warns that a tsunami could have more devastating consequences for Caribbean islands such as St. Maarten than a major hurricane, raising questions not only about the country's early-warning capabilities but also whether residents and visitors could realistically reach safety in time, given the island's extensive coastal development, limited road network and persistent traffic congestion.

The warning comes as Prime Minister Dr. Luc Mercelina has confirmed that government is developing a national tsunami response plan and accompanying procedures, with completion targeted for the fourth quarter of 2027. St. Maarten has also been developing a cell-broadcast emergency warning system intended to deliver urgent alerts directly to mobile phones.

However, the Dutch assessment highlights a fundamental challenge that technology alone cannot resolve: even if residents receive a warning, will they have sufficient time and accessible routes to escape the danger?

The findings are contained in the 2026 National Security Risk Analysis: Climate and Natural Disasters, prepared by the National Security Analysts Network (ANV) at the request of the Netherlands' National Coordinator for Counterterrorism and Security (NCTV).

The report identifies tsunamis generated by undersea earthquakes as a potentially catastrophic threat to Caribbean islands, where substantial residential, commercial and critical infrastructure is located in low-lying coastal areas.

It warns that tsunamis could cause deaths and injuries, severely damage essential services, disrupt economic activity and create widespread difficulties for affected communities.

Most significantly, the researchers state that because tsunamis are difficult to predict and may leave little time for warning and evacuation, their consequences could be even greater than those of a hurricane.

St. Maarten has already taken steps toward strengthening its emergency communication capabilities.

In May 2025, Prime Minister Mercelina announced an agreement with telecommunications providers Flow and Telem, together with the Bureau Telecommunications and Post, to establish the country's first cell-broadcast emergency alert system.

The US$650,000 project, financed through the World Bank-managed St. Maarten Trust Fund, is intended to allow authorities to send emergency notifications directly to mobile phones within designated areas without requiring residents to register or have internet access.

The system is designed to communicate warnings about emergencies including hurricanes, earthquakes, flooding and tsunamis.

Government subsequently conducted training and testing, while a public awareness campaign was launched in August 2026 to familiarize residents with emergency messages and alert procedures.

However, during parliamentary budget discussions on October 1, Mercelina indicated that although the system had successfully undergone controlled testing, final payments to TELEM remained outstanding. No public activation date was provided.

During those same discussions, the Prime Minister confirmed that government is targeting the fourth quarter of 2027 to finalize its tsunami response plan, earthquake plan and Host Nation Support arrangements, together with their standard operating procedures.

He also indicated that government intends to test disaster preparedness through tabletop exercises, communication tests, Emergency Operations Center activation exercises and field exercises where appropriate.

These developments demonstrate that emergency planning is underway, but they also raise questions about the country's present level of readiness.

Where Would Everyone Go?

For St. Maarten, one of the greatest practical challenges is the geography of the island itself.

The country is surrounded by water, with considerable residential and commercial development concentrated along its coastline. Important roads connect coastal communities, while densely developed areas, limited road capacity and frequent traffic congestion already create difficulties during ordinary daily travel.

In a tsunami emergency, these conditions could become critical.

If thousands of people attempt to evacuate low-lying areas simultaneously, the available road network may be unable to accommodate them quickly enough.

Traffic congestion, accidents, blocked intersections or damaged roads could prevent people from reaching safer locations.

Unlike hurricanes, which can generally be tracked for days before making landfall, a tsunami caused by a nearby undersea earthquake could leave residents with only minutes to respond, depending on where the earthquake occurs.

This creates an important distinction between issuing an alert and ensuring that people can act on it.

A warning delivered to someone's telephone would have limited practical value if that person does not know where to go, how to get there or whether the available route can be used safely.

The answer may not always be evacuation by vehicle.

In areas where higher ground can be reached quickly, evacuation on foot may be safer and faster than attempting to drive through congested streets. However, that depends on the location, the distance involved, the available routes and the physical capabilities of those evacuating.

These considerations make it important for St. Maarten to establish clearly defined evacuation areas and practical instructions tailored to individual communities.

They also raise questions about how elderly residents, persons with disabilities, hospital patients, young children and others requiring assistance would reach safety within a limited period.

The Dutch report specifically identifies the concentration of hotels and essential infrastructure in coastal areas as a factor increasing the Caribbean islands' exposure to tsunami damage.

For St. Maarten, this concern extends to tourism facilities, commercial establishments, transportation infrastructure and the services on which residents depend.

A major tsunami could potentially damage several essential systems simultaneously, complicating rescue operations and delaying recovery.

The assessment also emphasizes that small Caribbean islands are particularly vulnerable because they have limited alternatives when critical infrastructure fails.

Some depend on a single major electricity provider, hospital or other essential facility. Disruption of one such service can therefore have consequences extending across an entire island.

The potential loss of electricity, water supplies, communications and transportation would significantly complicate emergency response efforts.

For a tourism-dependent destination, authorities would also have to consider how visitors unfamiliar with the island would receive warnings, understand evacuation instructions and locate safe areas.

Hotels, cruise facilities, beaches and other tourism establishments would therefore have important responsibilities within any comprehensive tsunami preparedness strategy.

Emergency Planning Must Reflect Real Conditions

The Dutch report does not assess the adequacy of St. Maarten's existing tsunami evacuation routes or determine whether its emergency-warning and response arrangements are sufficient.

It also does not predict that a tsunami will strike the island within any particular period.

Nevertheless, its findings raise important questions that government must address as it develops its tsunami response plan.

These include whether the country's most vulnerable coastal communities have been identified, whether practical evacuation routes have been mapped and whether those routes remain usable when large numbers of people attempt to move at the same time.

Another consideration is whether evacuation planning takes account of St. Maarten's existing congestion and the possibility that vehicle movement could become impossible in certain areas.

The effectiveness of public education will be equally important. Residents and visitors must understand not only what an emergency alert means but also what immediate action they should take.

For a locally generated tsunami, strong earthquake shaking or other natural warning signs may require people in exposed coastal areas to evacuate immediately without waiting for an official message.

The broader challenge is ensuring that the procedures being developed are realistic under the conditions that actually exist on St. Maarten, rather than relying exclusively on technological systems or evacuation arrangements that may be difficult to execute.

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