NOAA predicts below-normal Atlantic Hurricane Season

GREAT BAY--NOAA’s National Weather Service is predicting a below-normal 2026 Atlantic hurricane season, but officials are urging residents, businesses and governments across the hurricane belt to prepare early and remain vigilant throughout the season.

The 2026 Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 to November 30. According to NOAA’s outlook, there is a 55 percent chance of a below-normal season, a 35 percent chance of a near-normal season and a 10 percent chance of an above-normal season.

NOAA is forecasting 8 to 14 named storms with winds of 39 mph or higher. Of those, 3 to 6 are expected to become hurricanes with winds of 74 mph or higher, including 1 to 3 major hurricanes of Category 3, 4 or 5 strength, with winds of 111 mph or higher. NOAA said it has 70 percent confidence in these ranges.

By comparison, an average Atlantic hurricane season produces 14 named storms, seven hurricanes and three major hurricanes.

The agency said the below-normal outlook is being influenced by competing climate factors. El Niño is expected to develop and strengthen during the hurricane season, which typically suppresses tropical storm and hurricane development in the Atlantic Basin. At the same time, Atlantic Ocean temperatures are expected to remain slightly warmer than normal, while trade winds may be weaker than average, conditions that can support tropical development.

“Although El Niño’s impact in the Atlantic Basin can often suppress hurricane development, there is still uncertainty in how each season will unfold,” said NOAA National Weather Service Director Ken Graham. “That is why it’s essential to review your hurricane preparedness plan now. It only takes one storm to make for a very bad season.”

NOAA emphasized that the seasonal outlook reflects expected overall activity across the Atlantic Basin. It does not predict where storms will form, where they will travel, or whether any storm will make landfall. Landfall risk is determined by short-term weather patterns that cannot be known months in advance.

The message is especially relevant for islands such as St. Maarten, where even one passing storm can affect homes, utilities, roads, communications, schools, businesses and the tourism economy. A quieter-than-average season does not eliminate the need for preparation, particularly for residents in vulnerable housing, coastal areas, flood-prone neighborhoods and communities that depend on reliable electricity, water and transportation.

Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said NOAA and the National Weather Service are prepared to deliver real-time storm forecasts and warnings using advanced forecasting tools.

“With the most advanced forecast modeling and hurricane tracking technologies, NOAA and the National Weather Service are prepared to deliver real-time storm forecasts and warnings,” Lutnick said. “Our experts are integrating cutting-edge tools to ensure communities in the path of storms receive the earliest, most accurate information possible.”

NOAA Administrator Neil Jacobs, Ph.D., said the agency is also using advanced technology to improve hurricane forecasting, including artificial intelligence-based weather models, drones and next-generation satellite data.

“NOAA’s rapid integration of advanced technology, including AI-based weather models, drones, and next-generation satellite data will deliver actionable science to safeguard the lives and livelihoods of the American people,” Jacobs said. “These new capabilities, combined with the unmatched expertise of our National Weather Service forecasters, will produce the most accurate forecasts possible to protect communities in harm’s way.”

NOAA said residents should not wait until a storm is approaching to review their plans. Preparedness should include checking hurricane shutters or other window protection, reviewing insurance documents, securing important papers, stocking emergency supplies, identifying safe shelter options, preparing for possible power and water disruptions, and ensuring that elderly relatives, children, pets and persons with medical needs are included in household plans.

“Preparing now for hurricane season, and not waiting for a storm to threaten, is essential for staying ahead of any storm,” Graham said.

NOAA’s outlook serves as an early seasonal guide, but officials remind the public that forecasts will continue to evolve once storms form. Residents should follow official weather updates, emergency management advisories and local instructions throughout the season.

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