Where are the babies? St. Maarten is growing, but not in the way you think

St. Maarten is growing, but not in the way many people might think. A new regional demographic report by ECLAC, the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean, United Nations' regional commissions, places the country among the Caribbean societies furthest along in a major population shift, one marked by fewer births, longer lives, an ageing population and increasing dependence on migration to sustain growth.

One number deserves attention immediately: St. Maarten's fertility rate is estimated at just 1.44 children per woman. That is well below the replacement level of approximately 2.1 children per woman, the level generally required for one generation to replace itself without migration. The same ECLAC data show that 21.5 percent of St. Maarten's population is already 60 years or older, while the median age has reached 41.7 years.

Those figures challenge the popular image of St. Maarten as an endlessly growing, youthful island. There may be more cars on the roads, more apartments going up and continued demand for workers, but underneath that visible growth another demographic story is unfolding. St. Maarten is having relatively few children, its population is ageing, and immigration is playing a much larger role in keeping the country's population expanding.

St. Maarten Is Already in the 'Very Advanced' Group

The findings come from a 2026 report by the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean, ECLAC, examining demographic change and its consequences across Latin America and the Caribbean. The study looks at fertility, adolescent births, life expectancy, child mortality, ageing, migration, labour markets, pensions, healthcare and other issues governments will increasingly have to confront.

ECLAC places St. Maarten in what it calls the "very advanced demographic transition" group. That grouping includes Aruba, Curaçao, Cayman Islands, British Virgin Islands, Anguilla, Turks and Caicos Islands and several other Caribbean and Latin American jurisdictions. Countries in this category generally have very low fertility, relatively high life expectancy and a much older population structure than societies still experiencing high birth rates.

Across this very advanced group, the average fertility rate is only 1.4 children per woman, while average life expectancy is 78.6 years. ECLAC says many of these societies are already dealing with the consequences of ageing, including pressure on pensions, healthcare, care services and the ability of governments to adapt public policy quickly enough.

St. Maarten fits squarely into that picture. Its estimated fertility rate of 1.44 is lower than Aruba's 1.61 and far below replacement level. ECLAC estimates life expectancy in St. Maarten at 76.5 years, with more than one in five residents already aged 60 or older.

So Why Does St. Maarten Still Feel Like It Is Growing?

This is where migration becomes central to the story.

ECLAC estimates St. Maarten's crude rate of natural population increase, essentially the difference between births and deaths, at only 0.8 persons per 1,000 inhabitants. Its crude migration rate, by comparison, is estimated at 12.9 per 1,000. The report defines those indicators separately, with natural growth reflecting births minus deaths and migration reflecting population movement into or out of the country.
Put simply, St. Maarten is still growing, but relatively little of that growth is being generated by births.

That is a significant finding for a country where immigration is often discussed mainly in terms of housing, traffic, schools, healthcare, undocumented residents and competition for jobs. The demographic picture introduces another side of that conversation: migration may also be helping St. Maarten compensate for a population that is not naturally replacing itself.

ECLAC notes that international migration can temporarily soften the effects of population ageing and declining fertility in receiving countries. Migrants, particularly those of working age, can add to the labour force and slow the rise in the ratio between older dependants and working-age residents.

That does not remove the pressures associated with population growth. More residents still require housing, roads, schools, healthcare, utilities and public services. But it means St. Maarten may increasingly find itself in a complicated position: needing workers and migration to sustain the economy while simultaneously struggling with the infrastructure demands created by that growth.

Who Will Fill the Jobs?

The demographic shift is important because St. Maarten's economy depends heavily on people.

Hotels need housekeepers, chefs and front-desk workers. Restaurants need servers and kitchen staff. Construction needs tradespeople. Government needs teachers, nurses, police officers and civil servants. Businesses need accountants, managers, technicians and sales staff. As the population ages and fewer young people enter the workforce, filling those jobs can become increasingly difficult.

ECLAC warns that Latin America and the Caribbean is approaching the end of what demographers call the "demographic dividend," the period in which the working-age population grows faster than the number of children and elderly people who depend on it. For much of the region, that window is projected to close around 2028.

Once that balance shifts, fewer workers are available relative to the number of people requiring pensions, healthcare and care. Economic growth then depends more heavily on productivity, higher labour-force participation and the ability to keep people economically active for longer.

For St. Maarten, that raises an uncomfortable but necessary question: if the country is already producing relatively few children, where will the next generation of workers come from?

Part of the answer will have to be education and retaining young St. Maarteners. Another part may inevitably be continued immigration.

The Pension and Healthcare Question

An older society also costs differently.

As the proportion of seniors increases, healthcare systems generally face greater demand for chronic disease treatment, medication, specialist care, home care and long-term support. Pension systems must support more retirees while depending on contributions from a workforce that may not be growing at the same pace.

ECLAC specifically warns that rapid ageing creates challenges for the coverage and financial sustainability of social-security systems. It also stresses that countries will need stronger pension arrangements, labour-market policies and systems capable of supporting older people who require assistance.

Those questions should sound familiar in St. Maarten, where the financial sustainability of social insurance and healthcare is already a major public-policy concern. The ECLAC report does not analyse SZV or St. Maarten's pension funds individually, so it would be wrong to claim the report predicts a particular financial outcome for either. What it does show is that the demographic direction will make those discussions more important, not less.

A society with fewer births and more seniors has to think much further ahead about who contributes, who receives benefits and how the system remains affordable.

What Happens to Schools?

Falling fertility can also eventually change education.

If smaller generations of children move through the school system, governments may have to rethink school capacity, teacher deployment and education spending. ECLAC identifies education as one of the major areas affected by demographic transition, alongside labour, health, social protection and long-term care.

For St. Maarten, migration could complicate that picture. Low fertility does not automatically mean rapidly falling school enrollment if immigrant families continue arriving with children. This is another reason why birth rates alone cannot tell the country's full population story.

It also reinforces the need for better population data. Government cannot properly plan schools, healthcare, housing or pensions if it does not know how many people are living in the country, how old they are, how many children are being born and how migration is changing the size and composition of the population.

This Is Happening Across the Region, Only Faster Than Many Expected

St. Maarten is not alone. Latin America and the Caribbean is ageing at one of the fastest rates in the world.

Regional fertility fell to approximately 1.8 children per woman in 2024, below the replacement level of 2.1. About 76 percent of countries and territories in Latin America and the Caribbean now have fertility below replacement level. ECLAC says the transition happened considerably faster than it did in Europe and North America, giving governments less time to prepare.
The regional population is also getting older quickly. In 1950, half the population was younger than 18. By 2024, the median age had risen to 31, and ECLAC projects it will reach 40 by 2050. The share of people aged 60 and older is expected to rise from 14.5 percent in 2025 to about 25 percent by 2050.

St. Maarten, with a median age already estimated at 41.7, is ahead of that regional curve.

The Question Is Whether St. Maarten Is Planning for It

The significance of the ECLAC report is not that St. Maarten should panic about having fewer babies. Falling fertility is associated with many positive changes, including greater educational opportunities, expanded participation of women in the workforce and greater reproductive choice. The challenge comes from what happens next.

A country cannot control demographic change simply by wishing for more births. It can, however, prepare for the consequences.

That means thinking about immigration as part of long-term economic planning rather than only as an enforcement issue. It means making it easier for young people to build lives and careers in St. Maarten. It means planning healthcare and care services for a population with more seniors. It means examining whether pension and social-security systems are prepared for a different balance between workers and retirees.

Most importantly, it means recognizing that the St. Maarten of 2040 will not have the same population structure as the St. Maarten of today.

The traffic and construction may make the country look as though it is simply getting bigger. The demographic numbers tell a more complicated story. St. Maarten is growing, but it is also getting older, having fewer children and relying heavily on migration to keep that growth going.

The babies are fewer. The seniors are increasing. The workers will still be needed.

That is the population challenge St. Maarten now has to start planning for.

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