Dutch voters head to the polls in tight race among five parties

THE HAGUE--On Wednesday, voters across the Netherlands will cast their ballots to elect 150 members to the House of Representatives, and all indications point to one of the most competitive elections in recent years.

According to the latest opinion surveys, the race remains too close to call, with five major parties separated by only a handful of seats.

A recent EenVandaag/Verian poll places the far-right PVV in the lead with 34 seats, while Peil.nl, run by Maurice de Hond, gives the party 29, and Ipsos/I&O projects 26.

Meanwhile, the GroenLinks-PvdA alliance is forecast to win between 23 and 25 seats, depending on the pollster, and the Christian Democrats are hovering between 20 and 23 seats.

One of the biggest discrepancies among the polling firms concerns the liberal democratic party D66, whose projected results vary from 16 to 22 seats. The VVD, the right-leaning party that has ruled out a coalition with the left-wing alliance, is expected to secure between 15 and 20 seats, depending on the survey.

All projections suggest that at least four parties will be required to form a governing coalition, and four of the five frontrunners have already stated they will not cooperate with the PVV.

In terms of campaign spending, D66 has so far outspent its rivals by a wide margin. Data compiled by Nielsen and reported by the Volkskrant show that D66 has invested about €1.8 million in campaign advertising—67% more than the VVD, which has spent €1.1 million, and more than GroenLinks-PvdA, at €928,000.

Nielsen’s figures are based on standard advertising rates for broadcasters and online platforms, meaning the actual expenditures may be somewhat lower. Still, the numbers provide a clear picture of the campaign hierarchy.

Overall, Dutch political parties have already spent slightly more than in the two previous national elections, and advertising costs are expected to surge in the final days leading up to Wednesday’s vote. Historically, over 80% of campaign budgets are deployed in the last week and a half before election day.

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